bissl knapp aber mit Analysen darf ma ja jetzt neuerdings bis zu 5 minuten vorher ...
VERDASCO - Melzer +
GAUDIO - Vik 1.68 NB 500 EH
Verdasco found his form lately with strong wins over Seppi and Rochus. He is the better clay courter of the 2. Melzer had many problems beating miserable Vemic in 3 sets and doesnt like to play in the height of Kitzbühl at all.
The H2H speaks a clear 6:1 and 5:0 on hard. Hewitt also won the last 3 encounters 2004 and 2005 on Roddicks home ground. As he usually was odds against by now bookies react and see him as favorit. Still with that H2H those odds have still to be taken.Both in equal form this week.
4th and last Grand Slam tournament starting today and beside the fact that there are "only" 24 first round matches instead of half of the 64 as usual (US Open speciality) the fact is that due to low priced favorits and not much value overall today I only recommend the following treble:
BJÖRKMAN - Behrend +
NOVAK - Norman +
GALIMBERTI - Young ) UNIBET 2.15 6/10
Björkman despite his 4th round last week had to play qualis and came without problems through it. Overall he has ok results on hard this year. Behrend is 0:6 in last 2 years ATP...
Novak with ups and downs usually but at Slams he is normally up to it. Had good results on hard in 2005. Opponent Norman is crap on that surface.
Galimberti went through the qualis as well and despite not much wins on hard this year he had good results in last days here. Young has beaten nobody on hard and i cant see him winning today. Still this is the match were the treble depends on because Björkman and Novak are safe imo.
4th and last Grand Slam tournament starting today and beside the fact that there are "only" 24 first round matches instead of half of the 64 as usual (US Open speciality) the fact is that due to low priced favorits and not much value overall today I only recommend the following treble:
BJÖRKMAN - Behrend +
NOVAK - Norman +
GALIMBERTI - Young ) UNIBET 2.15 6/10
Björkman despite his 4th round last week had to play qualis and came without problems through it. Overall he has ok results on hard this year. Behrend is 0:6 in last 2 years ATP...
Novak with ups and downs usually but at Slams he is normally up to it. Had good results on hard in 2005. Opponent Norman is crap on that surface.
Galimberti went through the qualis as well and despite not much wins on hard this year he had good results in last days here. Young has beaten nobody on hard and i cant see him winning today. Still this is the match were the treble depends on because Björkman and Novak are safe imo.
Naja Björkman und Novak seh ich auch so, denke nich das es dort zu ner Überaschung kommen kann. Aber der tipp für Galimberti um die Quote von derzeit 1,40-1,45 bei den meisten Bokies ist schlichthin ein witz!
Galimberti is auch nicht besonders viel stärker als Young einzuschätzen, also ich denke mal da gibt es wesendlich bessere Matches heute. Sehe die Chancen hier 50:50 max 55:45 für Calimberti also für Quoten um die 1,45 absolut nicht spielbar
die quote ist erstens 1.48 und zweitens wirst schon sehen...
Ok ich lese hier ja schon einge wochen mit und weiss das du wirklich ne ganz schöne ahnung vom tennis hast aber auch für 1,48 würde ich das nicht wetten, die quote is einfach zu schwach, weiss ja nicht wie du das siehst aber eigentlich is das fast schon en typisches 50:50 Spiel aber deiner Meinung nach muss ja Galimberti klarer Favoirt von den Chancenverteilung her sein sonst würdest du ja nich auf so ne schwache Quote für ihn gehn. Nunja für mich ist das Match nun mal halt eher ausgeglichen ich gebe Gamlimberti hier vielleicht 55% was bei einer Quote von 1,48 absolut immer noch nicht spielenswert is.
Naja wenn Galamberti das Match klar für sich entscheidet zieh ich meinen Hut aber abwarten!
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