Habe auf englisch was verfasst und woanders auf englisch gepostet, seht es mir nach, dass ich es nicht nochmal auf deutsch schreibe...
.... Before I leave to scandinavian road trip I want to share my perspective on goalscorer picks which will be part of my betting blog here the coming season. As you can see I am not in green zone with goalscorer picks but I have learnt a few things about picking goalscorer; I was asking myself after a test phase and end of the season in Germany now how much logical factors play a role in goalscorer bets and I come to the conclusion that picks concerning goalscorers are not only luck but also logial reasoning. Here some final thoughts I'd like to share. Note that this are not advices but only oberservations:
1) It did not only feel like, I really have to state first and most important that all in all you can say that there are often the same players in a team who are scoring regularly. Not only in big teams like Real Madrid where you think of Christiano Ronaldo but also in smaller teams and smaller leagues goals are often scored by the same players. This sounds logical because if it would not be like that we would not have statistics with goalscorers in every league and I think we all agree that it seems that in most teams (I speak about Europe but it should be the same in non-eurpoean leagues) there are a few players who are scoring the mass of goals of the whole team. So we have theoretically always the chance 1/10 (excluding goalkeeper) that a player will be scoring but practically the chance is much higher cause in most cases it's obviously the offense that is scoring the goals. So the chance to pick the right scorer is better than it seems on the first view.
2) We all know that this is just a general overview cause there is always the possibility and the reality that also defenders or defensive midfielders are scoring goals! Like Sergio Ramos for example who scored three times in a row with juicy odds. But we have to state that non-offensive players are scoring not that much as strikers and offensive midfielders. I have to say that I don't a statistic for that but my experience and my feeling are telling this and it seems obvious.
3) If we conclude that offensive players are scoring most goals in a team we can say the probability increases and we have the chance of 1/4-6 to pick the right player to score. So we have to analyse, and that's another conclusion, the offensive potential of a team over a period of time. Second facor, time, is a problem in the beginning of the season because we do not know which offensive player will be dangerous or most dangerous in the system the coach prefers to play. This depends on system, tactics and form of the player.
4) Because system and tactics will always change we have to consider especially the form of a player within the tactical system. The form of a player is important because good scorers are scoring no matter what the system of their own team or the system of the opponent team looks like. That means we have to concentrate in general on players who are just able to score everytime. Finding those players can be easy after a while, cause in some teams there are often the same players scoring like Liverpool this year with Suarez, Sturridge. So in the beginning of the season you have to trust your experience and it's harder to find the right scorers cause you don't have any statistics yet.
5) When there are statistics it's better of course cause you can pick on of the suspected players and try your luck with him. Then we come, away from the player's abilities, to the team theory: It's obvious to take suspected goalscorers ONLY when there are goals expeced in the game. So often you first don't have goalscorer's in mind cause it's better to ask yourself in which game there are goals expected. If two good teams from the midfield of the table are playing against each other they often neutralize themselves in the midfield, so it's better to focus on games where you expect goals a)because one team has a bad defense or even better b)both teams have a bad defense. In games like this the chance one offensive player scores is getting higher the more unserious and unprofessional the defense of the opposing team looks like. But also the chance of a defensive goalscorer increases cause bad defense means bad behavious after corners and free-kicks, plus
6) Note, that penalties happen often also in games where we can find at least one bad defense. I remember Hoffenheim this season: They had a phase where they conceded a lot of penaltis within a quite short period of time, almost every game. Then it's good to know who is the regular player for penalties in the opposing team.
7) When you have statistics after let's say 1/3 of the season you can also look how often a suspected player is scoring. We all know that players have special phases within a season. You can rate players, I mean suspected goalscorers, as following a) top-scorers scoring almost every or every game like Ronaldo, Messi and so on. They are quite nice but odds are really low often. So you can take and risk it that they are scoring twice. I picked Lewandowski in his last game and that he scores twice in his last game against a terrible Hertha BSC was quite reasonable. He could have scored four goals on that day. So it's good not to overthrow top-scorers because of their low odds ( often only 1.4-1.7) but to wait for the right moment to pick them. In general when they play against weak or very weak defenses. Those top-scorers are creating chances for themselves often, shot penalties also and are doing good at free-kicks.
.... Before I leave to scandinavian road trip I want to share my perspective on goalscorer picks which will be part of my betting blog here the coming season. As you can see I am not in green zone with goalscorer picks but I have learnt a few things about picking goalscorer; I was asking myself after a test phase and end of the season in Germany now how much logical factors play a role in goalscorer bets and I come to the conclusion that picks concerning goalscorers are not only luck but also logial reasoning. Here some final thoughts I'd like to share. Note that this are not advices but only oberservations:
1) It did not only feel like, I really have to state first and most important that all in all you can say that there are often the same players in a team who are scoring regularly. Not only in big teams like Real Madrid where you think of Christiano Ronaldo but also in smaller teams and smaller leagues goals are often scored by the same players. This sounds logical because if it would not be like that we would not have statistics with goalscorers in every league and I think we all agree that it seems that in most teams (I speak about Europe but it should be the same in non-eurpoean leagues) there are a few players who are scoring the mass of goals of the whole team. So we have theoretically always the chance 1/10 (excluding goalkeeper) that a player will be scoring but practically the chance is much higher cause in most cases it's obviously the offense that is scoring the goals. So the chance to pick the right scorer is better than it seems on the first view.
2) We all know that this is just a general overview cause there is always the possibility and the reality that also defenders or defensive midfielders are scoring goals! Like Sergio Ramos for example who scored three times in a row with juicy odds. But we have to state that non-offensive players are scoring not that much as strikers and offensive midfielders. I have to say that I don't a statistic for that but my experience and my feeling are telling this and it seems obvious.
3) If we conclude that offensive players are scoring most goals in a team we can say the probability increases and we have the chance of 1/4-6 to pick the right player to score. So we have to analyse, and that's another conclusion, the offensive potential of a team over a period of time. Second facor, time, is a problem in the beginning of the season because we do not know which offensive player will be dangerous or most dangerous in the system the coach prefers to play. This depends on system, tactics and form of the player.
4) Because system and tactics will always change we have to consider especially the form of a player within the tactical system. The form of a player is important because good scorers are scoring no matter what the system of their own team or the system of the opponent team looks like. That means we have to concentrate in general on players who are just able to score everytime. Finding those players can be easy after a while, cause in some teams there are often the same players scoring like Liverpool this year with Suarez, Sturridge. So in the beginning of the season you have to trust your experience and it's harder to find the right scorers cause you don't have any statistics yet.
5) When there are statistics it's better of course cause you can pick on of the suspected players and try your luck with him. Then we come, away from the player's abilities, to the team theory: It's obvious to take suspected goalscorers ONLY when there are goals expeced in the game. So often you first don't have goalscorer's in mind cause it's better to ask yourself in which game there are goals expected. If two good teams from the midfield of the table are playing against each other they often neutralize themselves in the midfield, so it's better to focus on games where you expect goals a)because one team has a bad defense or even better b)both teams have a bad defense. In games like this the chance one offensive player scores is getting higher the more unserious and unprofessional the defense of the opposing team looks like. But also the chance of a defensive goalscorer increases cause bad defense means bad behavious after corners and free-kicks, plus
6) Note, that penalties happen often also in games where we can find at least one bad defense. I remember Hoffenheim this season: They had a phase where they conceded a lot of penaltis within a quite short period of time, almost every game. Then it's good to know who is the regular player for penalties in the opposing team.
7) When you have statistics after let's say 1/3 of the season you can also look how often a suspected player is scoring. We all know that players have special phases within a season. You can rate players, I mean suspected goalscorers, as following a) top-scorers scoring almost every or every game like Ronaldo, Messi and so on. They are quite nice but odds are really low often. So you can take and risk it that they are scoring twice. I picked Lewandowski in his last game and that he scores twice in his last game against a terrible Hertha BSC was quite reasonable. He could have scored four goals on that day. So it's good not to overthrow top-scorers because of their low odds ( often only 1.4-1.7) but to wait for the right moment to pick them. In general when they play against weak or very weak defenses. Those top-scorers are creating chances for themselves often, shot penalties also and are doing good at free-kicks.
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